In the end, fears of a Corbyn government and disdain for Jo Swinson’s election campaign combined to defeat tactical voting. Over the past four weeks, the Observerhas reported on constituency polls designed to assist voters wanting to oppose the Conservatives and stop Brexit. Last Sunday, we recommended candidates in 50 seats. Our results were not great. Non-Conservatives won only 13 of these seats; of these, nine were SNP gains in Scotland. In England, our preferred candidates triumphed in only four seats: Putney and Portsmouth South (Labour) and Richmond Park and St Albans (Liberal Democrat).
Why so few successes? It was not the fault of Deltapoll’s data. Almost everywhere, they identified the correct challenger. Most dramatically, they showed rightly that the Liberal Democrats were snapping at Dominic Raab’s heels, despite the foreign secretary’s apparently impregnable 23,000 majority.
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